Goal time · Marathon
A 2:50:00 marathon works out to 6:29 per mile, or 4:02 per kilometer. Below are the mile splits for a slightly faster second half, the halfway time to aim for, and the training paces that go with this goal.
The numbers
This plan starts about 1% slower than goal pace and finishes about 1% faster, so the second half is slightly quicker than the first. The elapsed column is what your watch should read as you pass each marker.
| Mile | Pace for That Mile | Elapsed Time |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6:34 | 6:34 |
| 2 | 6:33 | 13:07 |
| 3 | 6:33 | 19:40 |
| 4 | 6:32 | 26:12 |
| 5 | 6:32 | 32:44 |
| 6 | 6:32 | 39:16 |
| 7 | 6:31 | 45:47 |
| 8 | 6:31 | 52:18 |
| 9 | 6:31 | 58:49 |
| 10 | 6:30 | 1:05:19 |
| 11 | 6:30 | 1:11:49 |
| 12 | 6:30 | 1:18:19 |
| 13 | 6:29 | 1:24:48 |
| Halfway (13.1) | 6:29 | 1:25:31 |
| 14 | 6:29 | 1:31:17 |
| 15 | 6:29 | 1:37:45 |
| 16 | 6:28 | 1:44:14 |
| 17 | 6:28 | 1:50:41 |
| 18 | 6:27 | 1:57:09 |
| 19 | 6:27 | 2:03:36 |
| 20 | 6:27 | 2:10:03 |
| 21 | 6:26 | 2:16:29 |
| 22 | 6:26 | 2:22:55 |
| 23 | 6:26 | 2:29:21 |
| 24 | 6:25 | 2:35:46 |
| 25 | 6:25 | 2:42:11 |
| 26 | 6:25 | 2:48:36 |
| Finish (26.2) | 6:24 | 2:50:00 |
Measured against the latest published results of 214 marathons on RunSesh.
One edition per race, from RunSignup races with published results. Fields include walkers and charity entrants, so this describes these races, not every runner in the country.
These are the paces for a runner who can already race a 2:50:00 marathon, worked out with Daniels and Gilbert's VDOT formulas, the method behind the training tables in Daniels' Running Formula. If your most recent race is slower, train at the paces on the page for that time.
Most of your weekly miles, including the long run.
A steady run of about 20 minutes, or longer repeats with short rests.
Repeats of 3 to 5 minutes, with easy jogs between.
Santos-Lozano et al. (2014), publishing in the International Journal of Sports Medicine, analyzed 190,228 New York City Marathon finishes from 2006 to 2011 and found that runners at every level slowed as the race progressed, while the fastest runners held the steadiest speed across each 5K segment. That finding is why this plan reserves a touch more speed for the second half. On race day, treat the halfway marker as the place to check your effort.
Daniels and Gilbert's VDOT formulas treat a 36:48 10K as the same performance as a 2:50 marathon. Comparing that against a recent 10K result tells you whether today's fitness supports this goal.
The RRCA pace chart developed by Amby Burfoot is clear on this: "don't begin with a future goal time. To do so increases risk of injury and/or overtraining." Base your paces on what you've already run.
USATF certification measures courses along the "Shortest Possible Route," so the official distance is a minimum for anyone holding that exact line. Pobiruchin et al. (2017) found GPS sport watches averaged 42.33 km against the official 42.195 km, a gap of 135 meters. At this pace that gap is worth 33 seconds across the race, so a watch logging that much extra could read slightly faster than 6:29 while you're exactly on goal.
Daniels and Gilbert's formulas treat a 1:21:22 half marathon as equivalent to a 2:50 marathon. Seeing how close your most recent half marathon result is to that mark gives you a concrete, fitness-based answer about whether the full marathon goal reflects where you are right now.
