Goal time · Marathon
A 2:45:00 marathon works out to 6:18 per mile, or 3:55 per kilometer. Below are the mile splits for a slightly faster second half, the halfway time to aim for, and the training paces that go with this goal.
The numbers
This plan starts about 1% slower than goal pace and finishes about 1% faster, so the second half is slightly quicker than the first. The elapsed column is what your watch should read as you pass each marker.
| Mile | Pace for That Mile | Elapsed Time |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6:22 | 6:22 |
| 2 | 6:22 | 12:44 |
| 3 | 6:21 | 19:05 |
| 4 | 6:21 | 25:26 |
| 5 | 6:21 | 31:46 |
| 6 | 6:20 | 38:07 |
| 7 | 6:20 | 44:26 |
| 8 | 6:20 | 50:46 |
| 9 | 6:19 | 57:05 |
| 10 | 6:19 | 1:03:24 |
| 11 | 6:18 | 1:09:42 |
| 12 | 6:18 | 1:16:01 |
| 13 | 6:18 | 1:22:18 |
| Halfway (13.1) | 6:18 | 1:23:00 |
| 14 | 6:17 | 1:28:36 |
| 15 | 6:17 | 1:34:53 |
| 16 | 6:17 | 1:41:10 |
| 17 | 6:16 | 1:47:26 |
| 18 | 6:16 | 1:53:42 |
| 19 | 6:16 | 1:59:58 |
| 20 | 6:15 | 2:06:13 |
| 21 | 6:15 | 2:12:28 |
| 22 | 6:15 | 2:18:43 |
| 23 | 6:14 | 2:24:57 |
| 24 | 6:14 | 2:31:11 |
| 25 | 6:14 | 2:37:25 |
| 26 | 6:13 | 2:43:38 |
| Finish (26.2) | 6:13 | 2:45:00 |
Measured against the latest published results of 214 marathons on RunSesh.
One edition per race, from RunSignup races with published results. Fields include walkers and charity entrants, so this describes these races, not every runner in the country.
These are the paces for a runner who can already race a 2:45:00 marathon, worked out with Daniels and Gilbert's VDOT formulas, the method behind the training tables in Daniels' Running Formula. If your most recent race is slower, train at the paces on the page for that time.
Most of your weekly miles, including the long run.
A steady run of about 20 minutes, or longer repeats with short rests.
Repeats of 3 to 5 minutes, with easy jogs between.
A 2018 analysis by Barry Smyth of 1.7 million marathoners, published in the Journal of Sports Analytics, found that starting too quickly can result in poorer finish times, which is why this plan reserves a little more pace for the second half. Treat the halfway marker as the point where you take stock of how the race is going before committing to the final push.
Daniels and Gilbert's VDOT formulas treat a 35:43 10K as the same fitness level as a 2:45 marathon. Running that time in a 10K gives you a concrete grounding for whether the marathon goal reflects where your fitness actually stands.
The RRCA pace chart is direct: "don't begin with a future goal time." That guidance points to a recent race result as the right starting point.
USATF certification measures courses along the "Shortest Possible Route," so a runner covering any other line runs farther than the official distance. Pobiruchin et al. (2017) found GPS sport watches averaged 42.33 km against the official 42.195 km, a difference of 135 meters. At this goal's pace those extra meters account for 32 seconds, so a watch could register a slightly faster average than 6:18 while you are exactly on goal.
Daniels and Gilbert's formulas treat a 1:18:56 half marathon as equivalent to a 2:45 marathon. Comparing that mark against a half marathon you've finished recently tells you how closely your current aerobic fitness matches the full-distance demand, without relying on projected improvement.
Ely et al. (2007) studied seven marathons and found that performance slowed progressively as WBGT, a heat-stress index combining temperature, humidity, sun, and wind, climbed from 5 to 25 degrees Celsius, and that finishers ranked 25th to 300th lost more time than faster runners as conditions worsened. El Helou et al. (2012) found that once air temperature exceeded each performance level's optimum, speeds fell and race withdrawals rose.
